top of page
Search

Policy Shifts, Market Moves, and When to Shelter

I started this post planning to share a simple shelter strategy—but it turned into something deeper. Because when it comes to investing, there’s rarely a quick answer. Stick with me to the end and see if the logic clicks for you.


Disclaimer:

I’m not a financial advisor. The content shared on this blog reflects my personal opinions and experiences—it is not financial advice or an investment recommendation. Please do your own research and make decisions based on what’s right for you and your financial goals.



What’s the Market’s Biggest Risk Right Now?

One word: Policy Uncertainty.


With new high-tariff policies being floated, the market is on edge. Investors are split on the potential impact.


The Two Sides of the Tariff Debate


Critics warn of:

  • A rebound in inflation

  • A mild recession (don’t panic—this just means two quarters of negative GDP, not a full-blown crisis )

  • Even stagflation—the worst-case scenario where high-inflation and high-unemployment co-exist


Supporters argue that tariffs will:

  • Bring industrial jobs back to the U.S.

  • Force exporters to lower prices, making the inflation shock softer

  • Help U.S. exports and industrial sector as oil prices and the dollar drop

  • Lead to recovery in 6–12 months



So… Who’s Right?


That’s a whole post on its own. Short answer: No one knows!


This is one of the biggest economic experiments since WWII—and we’re all watching it unfold in real time.


Which brings us to this:

It’s time to think about sheltering your portfolio.

Why Shelter Your Portfolio Now?

Let’s say the S&P 500 drops 15% from its all-time high of 6,144 (set on Feb 19, 2025), hitting 5,222. If your portfolio is tech-heavy, you could lose more than 15% and face a long road to recovery. But if your portfolio only dips 5%, you’ll bounce back much faster when the market turns.


Of course, that’s easier said than done.



Timing Is Everything


Shift too early, and you miss out on gains.

Shift too late, and you might sell at the bottom and miss the recovery.


So how do you time it?


Move Early in the Cycle


You’ve probably heard the phrase “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

That means markets often move before the news is official.


Like now—stocks already dropped almost 8% in March just because of tariff rumors.

If the actual announcement on April 2 ends up being less intense than expected, we could see a rebound.


The point is: don’t focus on next week—focus on where we are in the cycle.


Let’s talk more about the Cycle:


This is a policy-driven market. The cycle usually looks like this:

  1. Policy announcement

  2. Implementation

  3. Economic impact

  4. Policy adjustment


Where are we now? Early in the cycle.

The hard data (unemployment, GDP, CPI) looks okay.

The drop we’re seeing is more about sentiment—consumer confidence, a weaker dollar, shaky bond yields.



What Should You Do? It depends on Your Portfolio Type.


1. You’ve got a 401(k), you’re 45-ish, and you’re putting in money monthly.

  • No need to panic. You’re playing the long game.

  • You’re already dollar-cost averaging, and you’ve got time on your side.

  • Staying the course often beats risky timing moves.


2. You’ve got a semi-active portfolio (maybe ETFs or hand-picked stocks, no regular contributions).

You’re not a 100% passive investor—you research your stock picks and follow the news. So this is where a little strategy can help.


If you’re thinking about sheltering, consider more defensive assets. Here’s a quick breakdown of four ETFs I’m watching:


  • SPY – Tracks the S&P 500, and serves as a good benchmark.

  • TLT – A long-term treasury bond ETF. If recession fears rise, yields may drop and bond prices can go up—plus, it’s currently yielding around 4%.

  • BRK.B – Berkshire Hathaway. If you believe in their investing strategy, why not just own the stock?

  • IAU – A gold ETF. An easy way to get exposure to gold without hoarding bars in your closet.


The bar chart below shows March 2025 returns for each, based on price movement from 2/28 to 3/28, including dividends. The number speaks for themselves.


Just remember: if you move out of the market, you’ll also need to time when to move back in.


That means staying engaged, following the news, and not checking out completely. Don’t worry, we’ll keep chatting about this as things unfold.



What If You’re a Frequent Trader (or Just a Bit Obsessed)?


First things first—I stop trading every single day.


Lately, the market’s been especially tough for option traders. Prices are inflated (check the VIX if you’re curious), and breaking news can move things fast—too fast for comfort.


For those of you trading options for extra income (you know who you are), here’s how I’m thinking about it:

  • I keep an eye on Implied Volatility (IV) for stocks I know well— for example, keep a log of IV of QQQ daily, or even more frequent, it will tell you a lot of information and wait for the right moment.

  • I look for opportunities to sell options when premiums are high.

  • Consider selling options to take advantage of high premiums.

  • I focus on strategies that respond to volatility, not just guessing up or down.


Stay smart, stay sharp—and don’t feel pressured to be in the market every single day.



Final Thoughts


Markets are jumpy. Tariff talks are heating up. Nobody knows how this will play out.


But you can control your response:

  • Know your strategy.

  • Shelter if it makes sense.

  • Move early, not emotionally.


This isn’t about timing the bottom perfectly—it’s about staying smart and steady.


Let’s navigate it together.

Shelter wisely. Act early. And trade with clarity.


Want to chat more about where to shelter or how to handle volatility? Drop a comment.

Commenti

bottom of page